Latino representation is poised to grow in Congress following the 2016 election and Latinos are likely to tip the scales in a number of battleground states. But around half of all eligible Hispanic voters are projected to sit out this year’s presidential and congressional election, according to a new poll and analysis by the National Association of Elected Officials (NALEO).
At an event at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. just a few blocks from the White House, a number of leading luminaries and political experts gathered to discuss the findings. Among the panelists included Israel Ortega, senior writer for Opportunity Lives, as well as Maria Peña, senior correspondent for La Opinion, the largest Spanish language daily in the United States.
According to the analysis by the nonpartisan, nonprofit advocacy group, Latinos look to make the most gains in the U.S. House of Representatives, where their number may jump from 29 to 36. And in the Senate, the number of Latinos may jump from three to four if Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) prevails over Republican Rep. Joe Heck in the seat being vacated by retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.
NALEO also found strong support for Hillary Clinton over Donald J. Trump in the presidential race for the Latino vote. The poll showed a much tighter race in the critical battleground state of Florida, where the Republican real estate mogul enjoyed the support of 23 percent of Hispanics surveyed.
With weeks before Election Day, the Sunshine State may play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the presidential election — a point Arturo Vargas, NALEO executive director and panel discussion moderator was quick to make at the onset of his presentation.
“Latino support for President George W. Bush in Florida help[ed] him garner Electoral College votes needed for victory in the 2000 presidential election,” Vargas told a packed audience that included a number of journalists.
Although many on the panel made it a point to criticize the Donald Trump candidacy, they struggled to reconcile why this hasn’t translated into an even bigger lead for Clinton in a number of battleground states and why Latinos are not flocking to the Democratic Party in bigger numbers.
“This race is a lot closer in a number of battleground states because Secretary Clinton is a weak candidate that is not inspiring the Latino community,” said Ortega.
Barring a dramatic shift in the presidential contest, the Republican Party will likely lose the Latino vote by a wide margin on Election Day. This would amount to another disappointing showing for three consecutive presidential elections after winning nearly 44 percent of the Latino vote in President Bush’s successful 2004 reelection bid.
But according to Neri Martinez, executive director of the Future Majority Project, an effort to recruit minority candidates by the Republican State Leadership Committee, there is hope for the future for the Republican Party despite this year’s gloomy poll numbers.
Martinez pointed to a considerable investment by the Republican State Leadership Committee’s more than $11 million investment since 2011 as proof that Republicans are working to attract highly qualified Hispanics to run for office.
A successful template of these efforts can be seen in high profile Republicans like Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Rubio got his start in local politics as a county commissioner before becoming the first Hispanic Florida Speaker of the House, then U.S. Senator and most recently a presidential candidate.
And even in the age of Trump, Martinez tells Opportunity Lives that she feels confident that their recruiting and fundraising efforts will continue unabated regardless of the outcome of the presidential election.
“In the years that I have been doing this work, Hispanic Republicans are choosing to run because the party is recruiting and investing in them, and not because of any other race,” Martinez said.
“We will continue to build the Party from the ground up,”
The complete findings from the National Association of Latino Elected Officials can be found here.
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